MAGIC NUMBERS
It’s confusing, I know. So many people have asked me what a “magic number” is. For those of you unfamiliar, the AHL puts out a daily “Playoff Primer” letting folks know what their team’s specific magic number is to clinch a playoff spot, the division, or even the conference. It’s helpful as it maps out when a team could possibly punch their ticket. So how exactly is a magic number calculated? And how can you follow along? Let’s break it down.Currently, the Charlotte Checkers have a magic number of eight. That means it will take eight standings points for the Checkers to make the playoffs. Charlotte can reduce that number in two ways. The easiest way is by earning standings points themselves. When the Checkers win or lose in overtime/shootout, the one or two standings points that they earn help their magic number go down. If they win, magic number goes down two. If they lose in overtime or the shootout, magic number goes down by one.
They can also reduce that magic number when the team in seventh place in the Atlantic Division loses. Right now, Hartford is in seventh place, on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. If Hartford loses, it means they’re leaving standings points on the table and making the odds of getting into the playoff hunt harder and harder with every game that passes. So when the seventh place loses, that helps reduce the Checkers’ magic number, too. For every Hartford regulation loss, Charlotte’s number goes down two, for every OT/SO loss, it goes down one.
Bottom line, root for wins by the Checkers and losses by the Wolf Pack. On any night where both teams are playing, the Checkers can reduce their magic number by four. So, with both Hartford and Charlotte in action on Wednesday and Friday this week, the Checkers could clinch as early as Friday night if they knock off Springfield in back-to-back games and Hartford loses their next two in regulation. Keep in mind, the Bridgeport Islanders could slip out of the sixth place position with Hartford overtaking them, in which case Checkers fans will want to root for Bridgeport losses. Whomever is in seventh place, their losses help the Checkers’ cause.
DENI DEALING DAMAGE
Following his assist in Sunday’s game, Grigori Denisenko finds himself riding a six-game point streak, his longest of the season. In that span, Denisenko has logged seven points with one goal and six assists. He’s playing some of his best hockey as the team heads down the stretch, and if he plays in eight of the final nine games of the regular season, he’ll hit the 100 games played mark in the AHL before postseason play.Fun fact, even if Denisenko doesn’t register a single point in those games, the first-round draft pick will still have a points-per-game average of over half a point per game. With 56 career points in the AHL in 92 games, Denisenko is averaging .61 points per game at this very moment, with hopefully more points on the horizon as the team races toward the postseason.
BALANCE OF POWER
When looking at the Atlantic Division, the Checkers rank second in goals for with 201 total tallies on the year. Only Bridgeport has more goals with 208 to this point. When you look at Bridgeport’s roster, two Islanders sit in the AHL’s Top-20 in scoring, Chris Terry and Andy Andreoff. For Charlotte, their leading scorer Riley Nash, is 31st in the league in scoring with his 50 pts.What that tells me is the Checkers have a better balance of power than almost any team in the division. Not only is Charlotte near the top in total goals scored, but it’s not just one or two guys that are pulling the wagon.
3rd PERIOD PROWESS
There are two teams in the league who have more than 80 goals scored in the third period, the Checkers (80) and the Syracuse Crunch (82). It’s quite apparent that Charlotte can find the back of the net in the latter stages of the game, which speaks to the team’s conditioning and stamina. They do have the second fewest amount of goals scored in the first period with 47, so this team is clearly one that accelerates offensively throughout the game and does its best work in the final third.SCOUTING SPRINGFIELD
Despite having lost three of their last four, the T-Birds have fared very well against the Checkers this season. Head-to-head so far, Springfield has the advantage in the season series, two games to one. Going back to last season, not including the playoffs, the Thunderbirds are a gaudy 8-3-0-0 against Charlotte.What’s it going to take to get the Thunderbirds off their game? It’ll start and end with the Checkers leaning into what they’re good at. No one has a better win percentage when scoring the games’ first goal than the Checkers. Do that. The Checkers’ power play is converting at 25% against Springfield this year (3-for-12), keep that up, and Charlotte’s penalty kill is the best in the division going up against the second-best power play in the division, win that battle. It’s going to be a series much like last weekend against Providence, where the first team to blink loses.
